Paper's Title:

The Dynamics of an Ebola Epidemic Model with Quarantine of Infectives

Author(s):

Eliab Horub Kweyunga

Department of Mathematics,
Kabale University,
P.O.Box 317, Kabale,
Uganda.

E-mail: hkweyunga@kab.ac.ug

Abstract:

The recurrent outbreaks of ebola in Africa present global health challenges. Ebola is a severe, very fatal disease with case fatality rates of up to 90%. In this paper, a theoretical deterministic model for ebola epidemic with quarantine of infectives is proposed and analyzed. The model exhibits two equilibria; the disease free and endemic equilibrium points. The basic reproduction number, R₀, which is the main threshold, is obtained and the stability of the equilibrium points established. Using parameter values drawn from the 2014 West Africa ebola outbreak, a numerical simulation of the model is carried out. It is found that the dynamics of the model are completely determined by R₀ and that a quarantine success rate of at least 70% is sufficient to contain the disease outbreak.

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