Paper's Title:

A Comparison Between Two Different Stochastic Epidemic Models with Respect to the Entropy

Author(s):

Farzad Fatehi and Tayebe Waezizadeh

Department of Mathematics,
University of Sussex,
Brighton BN1 9QH,
UK.
E-mail: f.fatehi@sussex.ac.uk
URL: http://www.sussex.ac.uk/profiles/361251

Department of Pure Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Computer,
Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman,
Kerman 76169-14111,
Iran.
E-mail: waezizadeh@uk.ac.ir
URL: http://academicstaff.uk.ac.ir/en/tavaezizadeh

Abstract:

In this paper at first a brief history of mathematical models is presented with the aim to clarify the reliability of stochastic models over deterministic models. Next, the necessary background about random variables and stochastic processes, especially Markov chains and the entropy are introduced. After that, entropy of SIR stochastic models is computed and it is proven that an epidemic will disappear after a long time. Entropy of a stochastic mathematical model determines the average uncertainty about the outcome of that random experiment. At the end, we introduce a chain binomial epidemic model and compute its entropy, which is then compared with the DTMC SIR epidemic model to show which one is nearer to reality.

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